Vistra Corp（VST）の決算・業績分析
Vistra Corpの2025年有価証券報告書をAI分析。売上高$17.6B(+19.1%)。営業利益$1.9B。Utilities。
目次
Vistra Corpの2025年度 業績サマリー
Vistra Corp（証券コード: VST）の2025年度決算・業績分析。売上高は$17.6B（前年比+19.1%）。営業利益は$1.9B（前年比-53.3%）。純利益は$944M（前年比-64.5%）。有価証券報告書を基に、業績変化の要因・リスク・見通し・セグメント構成を AI が分析しました。
Vistra Corpの2024年度 注目ポイント
※ 直近の2025年度XBRLデータは取込済みですが、AI分析は2024年度の10-Kを対象としています。
- Revenue declined 11.7% YoY to $15.6B (XBRL), driven by elimination of the Sunset segment in Q4 2024 (10-K).
- Operating income improved 22.3% YoY to -$1.2B (XBRL), despite negative margins (-7.5%) due to merger-related activities (10-K).
- Net debt reached $10.9B (26.1x EBITDA) (XBRL), reflecting significant capital expenditures ($1.3B) and high leverage (D/E 5.21x) (XBRL).
- Shareholder returns totaled $2.3B via dividends ($302M) and buybacks ($1.9B) (XBRL), despite negative net income (-$1.2B) (XBRL).
- 5-year revenue CAGR of 7.1% (XBRL) contrasts with 5-year operating income CAGR of 40.2% (XBRL), highlighting structural challenges.
Vistra Corpの売上高変化の要因
- •Total revenue declined 11.7% YoY to $15.6B (XBRL), with the elimination of the Sunset segment in Q4 2024 cited as a key driver (10-K). Segment-specific revenue figures are not disclosed (N/A). Historical data shows revenue peaked at $17.7B in FY2023 before declining to $15.6B in FY2024 (XBRL). The 5-year revenue CAGR of 7.1% (XBRL) contrasts with a 40.2% CAGR in operating income (XBRL), reflecting operational challenges despite growth in generation capacity.
Vistra Corpの営業利益変化の要因
- •Operating income improved 22.3% YoY to -$1.2B (XBRL), but remains negative with a -7.5% operating margin (XBRL). Net income also improved 3.7% YoY to -$1.2B (XBRL), with a -7.8% net margin (XBRL). EBITDA of $419M (2.7% of revenue) (XBRL) highlights efficiency in core operations despite overall losses. Gross profit is not disclosed (N/A). The improvement in operating income is attributed to merger-related activities and segment restructuring (10-K).
Vistra Corpの事業リスクと対応
Price fluctuations in wholesale power markets impact revenues and cash flows (10-K).
Fuel cost volatility and market disruptions affect operating costs (10-K).
Retirement of underperforming generation units incurs significant costs (10-K).
Ineffective hedging or counterparty defaults increase financial exposure (10-K).
Competition and new generation capacity reduce wholesale power prices (10-K).
Environmental regulations and climate change legislation pose regulatory risks (10-K).
Uncertain market conditions and capital availability challenge the Vistra Zero portfolio's growth (10-K).
Vistra Corpの今後の見通し・業績予想
Vistra Corpの事業内容
Vistra Corp. operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company, serving ~5 million customers across 18 U.S. states and D.C. (10-K). Its business model combines retail sales of electricity and natural gas with wholesale power generation through a diverse fleet (10-K). Key segments include Retail (electricity/natural gas sales), Texas, East, West (geographic generation), and Asset Closure (decommissioning) (10-K). Competitive advantages include an integrated retail-generation model, a diverse generation portfolio (natural gas, nuclear, renewables), and strong brand recognition (TXU Energy, Ambit Energy) (10-K). No significant customer concentration is reported (10-K).
Vistra CorpのAI業績分析レポート（2024年度）
Vistra Corp. (VST) FY2024 Annual Report Analysis
Highlights
Business Overview
Vistra Corp. operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company, serving ~5 million customers across 18 U.S. states and D.C. (10-K). Its business model combines retail sales of electricity and natural gas with wholesale power generation through a diverse fleet (10-K). Key segments include Retail (electricity/natural gas sales), Texas, East, West (geographic generation), and Asset Closure (decommissioning) (10-K). Competitive advantages include an integrated retail-generation model, a diverse generation portfolio (natural gas, nuclear, renewables), and strong brand recognition (TXU Energy, Ambit Energy) (10-K). No significant customer concentration is reported (10-K).
Revenue Analysis
Total revenue declined 11.7% YoY to $15.6B (XBRL), with the elimination of the Sunset segment in Q4 2024 cited as a key driver (10-K). Segment-specific revenue figures are not disclosed (N/A). Historical data shows revenue peaked at $17.7B in FY2023 before declining to $15.6B in FY2024 (XBRL). The 5-year revenue CAGR of 7.1% (XBRL) contrasts with a 40.2% CAGR in operating income (XBRL), reflecting operational challenges despite growth in generation capacity.
Profitability Analysis
Operating income improved 22.3% YoY to -$1.2B (XBRL), but remains negative with a -7.5% operating margin (XBRL). Net income also improved 3.7% YoY to -$1.2B (XBRL), with a -7.8% net margin (XBRL). EBITDA of $419M (2.7% of revenue) (XBRL) highlights efficiency in core operations despite overall losses. Gross profit is not disclosed (N/A). The improvement in operating income is attributed to merger-related activities and segment restructuring (10-K).
Balance Sheet Analysis
Equity ratio declined to 16.1% (XBRL), with total equity at $5.3B (XBRL) and long-term debt at $14.4B (XBRL). Net debt of $10.9B (26.1x EBITDA) (XBRL) reflects high leverage. Current ratio of 1.18x (XBRL) indicates moderate liquidity. Cash reserves of $3.5B (XBRL) provide short-term flexibility, but ROE of -23.1% (XBRL) and ROA of -3.7% (XBRL) highlight poor capital efficiency.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating cash flow of $485M (XBRL) contrasts sharply with net income of -$1.2B (XBRL), driven by working capital management (CCC of 30 days) (XBRL). Free cash flow was -$816M (XBRL), reflecting $1.3B in capital expenditures (XBRL) for the Energy Harbor merger and gas projects (10-K). Investing cash flow was -$1.2B (XBRL), while financing cash flow was -$80M (XBRL). Shareholder returns totaled $2.3B via dividends ($302M) and buybacks ($1.9B) (XBRL).
Working Capital Analysis
Cash conversion cycle (CCC) of 30 days (XBRL) reflects 39 days receivables, 17 days inventory, and 27 days payables (XBRL). Asset turnover of 0.47x (XBRL) indicates underutilized assets.
Risks
Outlook
Management highlights the Energy Harbor merger, nuclear license renewals, planned gas-fueled projects in Texas, and the Texas Energy Fund loan application as key trends impacting future results (10-K). No explicit forward-looking guidance is provided (N/A).
Historical Time Series
| Metric | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.8B | 11.5B | 10.8B | 17.7B | 15.6B | 13.8B |
| Operating Income | 491M | 2.0B | 1.5B | -1.5B | -1.2B | 2.7B |
| Net Income | -54M | 928M | 636M | -1.3B | -1.2B | 1.5B |
| Total Assets | 26.6B | 25.2B | 29.7B | 32.8B | 33.0B | 37.8B |
| Total Equity | 8.0B | 8.4B | 8.3B | 4.9B | 5.3B | 5.6B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.5B | 2.7B | 3.3B | -206M | 485M | 5.5B |
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